GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE: Science, Law, and Economics

Professor Howard Latin

Spring Semester 2012, Tuesdays and Thursdays, 6:30 to 8:00 PM

Room 407 in the Law School

 

People are now faced in varying degrees by the worst pollution problem of all time, the worst environmental problem of all time, and very likely the worst human problem of all time.  Yet, the major greenhouse gas polluting nations have not established effective policies and practices to mitigate climate change risks, and I believe most climate programs are headed in the wrong direction.  I am finishing a book, entitled "CLIMATE CHANGE POLICY FAILURES: Why Conventional Mitigation Approaches Cannot Succeed," that is scheduled to be published in the Winter of 2012.  We will be discussing the major themes in this book, either in its published form or in a previous manuscript format, later in the semester.  Student comments will be appreciated.

The grade for this course will require writing a paper sufficient to meet the Rutgers Law School Writing Requirement (even if the student has previously met this requirement in another course); the paper must be (1) at least 25 pages long plus endnotes or footnotes; (2) on a climate-policy-related topic approved by Professor Latin; and (3) of a sufficiently high analytical quality as determined by the Professor.  Or students can take a one-day take-home exam, which means the exam must be picked up by 4:00 PM of the day before the assigned exam date for the course and then turned in by 4:00 PM on the assigned day.  I would prefer that students write papers with my approval of the topics, and there are a great many possible dimensions of climate change problems to explore that can serve as the basis for papers.  But students can choose the take-home exam instead with no prejudice to the grade they receive.

The date of the first class will be Tuesday, January 17th.  This is a week later than law school courses normally begin, but I have shifted the course back a week to conform to the typical schedules of other Rutgers graduate departments. 

    With the possible exception of Professor Latin's book, which should be published in late February or early March, all of the readings
    assigned will be free downloads from links (URLs) identified in the assignments below.  The most frequently used material will be a book by
    Dr. Bert Metz, Controlling Climate Change (Cambridge University Press, 2010).  Dr. Metz has long been a leading member of the UN
    Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the largest and among the most prestigious scientific associations working on climate
    change issues.  Cambridge Press must be thanked for explicitly allowing anyone to download a copy of Dr. Metz's book for free, at his request.  
 
    The weekly assignments will be posted below.  Many free materials must be downloaded through the URL links included on this page. The
     problem is not to find enough materials on global climate change and global warming issues, but rather to reduce the avalanche of relevant
     publications to a manageable amount.  It may be helpful to refer to this glossary if you are unclear about the meaning of some of the terms
     in the climate change literature.

I am leaving the 2011 course assignments and materials below to serve as a general syllabus of the course.  However, the text books and major materials are different this year and significant changes are occurring nearly every day, such as the international Meeting of the Parties in Durban, South Africa, in December 2011 aimed at producing a general treaty on climate change mitigation and program funding.  The 2011 assignments/syllabus will appear after the parallel rows of asterisks below, while the current 2012 assignments will follow this comment.  The previous assignments are included only to provide an overview of the climate change problems that will be addressed in this course--the specific materials and their sequence will be substantially different.

 

Tuesday, January 17th and Thursday, January 19th:  Introduction to Climate Change Science and Harms

Download and read the Metz book, pp. 1-49.  Most of this course will be devoted to political, legal, and economic issues, but a reasonably clear understanding of the scientific concepts, characteristics, and risks associated with global climate change is necessary for thoughtful policy- oriented assessments.  The early chapters of the Metz book are mostly science with some climate-policy projections.
The Metz book is about 23MB, so you may need to put it on a flash drive or to print out the assigned pages as we reach them.

We will be discussing the Keeling Curve:
 

This curve shows the gradual but steady increase in the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, which is probably the most crucial factor in the continuing increase in global climate change risks.  The annual variation (the yearly squiggle) in this curve reflects the tendency of vegetation to absorb CO2 during the spring and summer growing seasons and to release CO2 during the fall and winter seasons. 

You should also download a glossary and description of relevant climate issues published by the WorldWatch Institute.  Read the
short glossary and compare it to the IPCC glossary available through the link a few paragraphs above, and then look at the rather
brief descriptions of diverse climate-policy issues in the WWI publication.

 

Tuesday, January 24th and Thursday, January 26th:  Greenhouse Gas Emissions and their Sources

For a general overview on GHG emissions and their dimensions, read pp. 8-19 (middle) of the National Research Council Report
(NRCReport) and pp. 30-49, 111-115 of the Metz Book.

Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions arise from human and natural sources, but the steady increase in the past few decades is almost
entirely the result of human activities, including energy production and consumption, building construction, manufacturing processes, transportation, deforestation, agricultural changes, land use changes, and subsistence activities such as cooking and house heating.
Compare the percentage of GHGs from different categories of sources in the Metz readings with percentages in the chart distributed
in class Thursday and presented here.  This chart particularly emphasizes agricultural and forestry sources of GHGs.

 

Tuesday, January 31st and Thursday, February 2d:  Environmental Economics & Climate Change Issues

The articles included in this week's handout involve diverse environmental economics conceptions related to climate change problems
and solutions.  Some of this material may be difficult to understand for students who do not already have a solid background in
economics, but the goal is to learn about the basic economic concepts and then to apply them to climate concerns.  In our discussion,
we will review these central terms in economic analyses:  externalities, private goods, public goods, common (or communal) goods,
free rider syndrome, discounting, elasticity, and willingness to pay (WTP).  I do not intend to try to teach an economics 101 course,
but rather to offer straightforward definitions of these core factors and then to show how they apply to climate change problems.  This
material will take at least two classes and possibly as many as four depending on student feedback.

 

Tuesday, February 7th:  Continuation of Discussion of Basic Environmental Economics Concepts

Hopefully we can finish the remaining economic concepts, which largely deal with markets and market imperfections, on Tuesday.


Thursday, February 9th:  Economic Incentive Strategies and Cap-and-Trade Programs

Please download the assigned materials for this discussion, which are likely to cover two class periods.  It is important to emphasize
the distinction between theoretical efficiencies and implementation practicalities.  We also have to consider how the wealthy fossil
fuel producing or consuming companies will be able to operate under a cap-and-trade system.

 

Tuesday, February 14th and Thursday, February 16th:  More Economic Incentive Programs (Offsets)

We will devote Tuesday to finishing our discussion of Cap & Trade programs and their numerous implementation problems. Thursday
we will begin discussing offset mechanisms with particular emphasis on the Clean Development Mechanism created under the Kyoto
Protocol.  I would like to finish an analysis of offsets on Thursday, but we may have to extend the discussion for one more day. Please
download the offset readings here.

 

Tuesday, February 21st and Thursday, February 23d:  Offsets and Carbon Taxes

On Tuesday, we will conclude our discussion of offset programs, with particular emphasis on the CDM program.  On Thursday, we
will discuss the relatively straightforward mechanism of carbon (or all GHG) taxes.  The handout on taxes is a short one because the
concepts are not especially complicated.

 

Tuesday, February 28th and Thursday, March 1st:  International Negotiations

It is very important to focus on the different interests and priorities advanced by diverse blocs of nations and multilateral institutions.
Either we must find a way to harmonize the choices of major GHG-polluting countries within the conventional mitigation strategies,
or we must abandon the familiar approaches and create new mitigation treatments that are beneficial for all of the influential blocs.
Here is the material you can download for these discussions. 

 

Tuesday, March 6th and Thursday, March 8th:  Climate Change Harms, Adaptation and Ethics

There is a close connection between climate change dangers, especially for poor people in developing countries, adaptation
requirements, ethical versus economic perspectives, and both national law and international law principles.  Download the
materials for this week here.

 

Tuesday, 13th and Thursday, March 15th:  Reading Material During Spring Break

No classes will be held during the Spring Break week, but there will be a reading assignment that will be discussed in depth
next week.  Here are the assigned materials for this week and next week.

 

Tuesday, March 20th and Thursday, March 22d:  Adaptation, Ethics, Human Rights & Law

We will continue discussing the interaction between adaptation and ethics issues, and will expand this discussion to include human rights
principles and laws.  The materials were assigned for the previous week and I will expect students to have read them carefully.

 

Tuesday, March 27th and Thursday, March 29th: REDD+ and Related Problems

The material to be downloaded will serve as the center of our discussions for two or three class-days.  This may look like an unusually
long assignment but it is not because several documents are only a page or two in length, and the largest essay on illegal deforestation
published by the World Bank is only a little more than 40 pages long.  When reading these documents, please keep a separate list of all
the benefits that you think can be derived from the REDD+ concept and another list of all the implementation problems that can sabotage
the REDD concept in theory and practice.

 

Tuesday, April 3d, and Thursday, April 5th:  Enforcement and Compliance

After reading the essay on illegal forestation in last week's materials, please download this week's materials on enforcement, compliance,
and the design of effective climate change laws--both national and international.

 

Thursday, April 12th:  EPA Greenhouse Gas Regulations

In addition to reading the two excerpts from the NY Times at the back of the previous week's handout, read the materials in this week's
handout.  These materials are not long but they are complicated and will probably require rereading at least a couple of times.

 

Tuesday, April 17th, and Thursday, April 19th:  Adaptation and Potential Remedies

Most of the semester has been devoted to mitigation issues, but this week, which is the last week of classes, will be be devoted mainly
to a discussion about possible remedies for people, and groups of people, who are being damaged by climate change hazards and are
attempting to claim some kind of right to adaptation assistance or legal remedies for their risk exposure and potential losses. 
Download the materials for these classes here.

 

 

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*********************************************2011 Assignments*******************************************
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Tuesday, January 11th and Thursday, January 13th:  Introduction to Climate Change Science and Effects

Read the Kerry Emanuel monograph (short book) and Bert Metz book 1-49.  Most of this course will be devoted to political, legal, and economic issues, but a reasonably clear understanding of the scientific concepts, characteristics, and risks associated with global climate change is necessary for thoughtful policy-oriented assessments.  The Emanuel book is almost pure science but offering a readable presentation meant for lay people, while the early chapters of the Metz book are mostly science with some policy projections.

We will also be discussing the Keeling Curve, copied below from p.116 of the Hansen book:
 

This curve shows the gradual but steady increase in the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, which is probably the most crucial factor in the continuing increase in global climate change risks.  The annual variation (the yearly squiggle) in this curve reflects the tendency of vegetation to absorb CO2 during the spring and summer growing seasons and to release CO2 during the fall and winter seasons.


Tuesday, January 18th and Thursday, January 20th:  Baselines, Bathtubs, and Cumulative GHGs

   This assignment includes excerpts from the first two chapters of my draft manuscript: pp. 1-18, 21-40 (middle) & 43-50 (top), and
    pp. 51-60 of the Metz book.  The core subject is the relationship between greenhouse gas pollution discharges and the cumulative
    atmospheric GHG concentrations.  I argue that cutting annual GHG emissions ordinarily will not reduce the atmospheric GHG
    concentration or the associated climate change dangers.  This view is completely the opposite of the contentions of many experts
    who believe that every little bit of GHG pollution reduction will correspondingly reduce climate change risks.

 

    Tuesday, January 25th and Thursday, January 27th:  Temperature Variations, Targets, and Tipping Points

   We will discuss the recent shift in mitigation targets from the atmospheric GHG concentration to the atmospheric mean (average)
    temperature, with the expressed goal of restricting further temperature increases to no more than about two degrees Celsius above
    pre-industrial times or a little more than one degree C above current mean world temperatures.  Read Latin pp. 50-57 on the attempts
    to limit global warming temperature increases to two degrees Celsius.  For those of you who cannot convert Celsius to Fahrenheit degrees,
    here is a convenient  table:  -30C=-22F, -20C=-4F, -10C=14F, 0C=32F, 10C=50F, 20C=68F, 30C=86F, 40C=104F, 50C=122F. 
    Essentially, each increase of one degree Celsius is equal to one & eight-tenths Fahrenheit degrees (1C=1.8F). 

    Read: Hansen pp. 140-147, 164(top)-171.  In his discussion, "PETM" means the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum, a warming
    period about 55 millions years ago, that Dr. Hansen says provides a useful comparison to the warming period we are now experiencing.
    If you want to learn more about the effects of long-term global temperature swings and occasional disastrous shifts, the pages between
    148 and 163 are informative.

    Tipping points represent climate conditions that may cause irreversible disasters, which could include mean temperature increases and the
    harmful results, such as sea level rises, melting glaciers, and species extinctions.  Here are a few short pieces on possible tipping points.

 

    Tuesday, February 1st and Thursday, February 3d:  Environmental Economics 

    We will first discuss basic environmental economics problems, including negative and positive externalities, public goods, communal
    goods, free riding, discounting of future values, competitive disadvantages, monopoly market-power, and the effects of scientific and
    economic uncertainties on all of these market forces or factors.  The materials supporting this discussion can be downloaded here.
    After we have covered these basic concepts and problems, in future weeks we will look at economic-incentive measures, including
    cap-and-trade systems and carbon taxes, that supposedly can produce more efficient climate change mitigation outcomes than direct
    regulation could.

 

    Tuesday, February 8th and Thursday, February 10th:  Economic-Incentive Mechanisms  Cap-and-Trade

    Virtually every American climate-policy legislative proposal of the past decade incorporated a cap-and-trade system that ostensibly would
     reduce greenhouse gas emissions more "efficiently" or at a lower cost than direct regulation initiatives.  The European Trading Scheme
    (ETS) is the world's largest cap-and-trade system, and it is about to enter a third phase designed to overcome some of the problems
    with the earlier ETS designs and implementations.  Please download the materials here and try to compare cap-and-trade systems against
    regulation in a realistic and balanced manner.

    Also I have uploaded a final version of my book to this web site.  Please download this manuscript and read pp. 59-78 on cap-and-trade
    systems.

 

    Tuesday, February 15th and Thursday, February 17th:  Cap-andTrade & Offset Programs

Download the latest draft of my book and read Pp. 60-94 on cap-and-trade weaknesses and offset problems.  Make sure you review
the materials assigned last week, especially the Revkin through McAllister pieces.

 

Tuesday, February 22d and Thursday, February 24th: International Offsets, the CDM, and Carbon Taxes

Read the section of my book manuscript on the CDM, and the following section on carbon taxes or fees, pp. 88-114.  Read the Metz discussion of CDMs, pp. 322-333, and the discussion of a fee-and-dividend system (a carbon tax & rebate system) in the Hansen book at 209-222.

 

Tuesday, March 1st and Thursday, March 3d: Stalemate in International Negotiations

We will identify and address the arguments presented by developing nations to support their national interests and
priorities on climate change issues, and then we'll consider the counter-arguments adopted by developed nations.
Read Chapter 4 of my book manuscript.

 

Tuesday, March 8th and Thursday, March 10th:  Climate Change Impacts on Indigenous and Poor People

Climate Change will have many ethical and practical ramifications for indigenous or poor people who have little
power to promote their group interests.  Please download and read the diverse materials that will form the basis
for this week's discussion. 

 

Thursday, March 24th: Adaptation in the U.S.

We will examine various facets of Adaptation plans and practices.  The materials that you should download
and read include a few essays on adaptation issues in America and a few pieces on general adaptation issues.
This discussion will likely continue into the following week. 

 

Tuesday, March 29th and Thursday, March 31st:  Adaptation in Developing Countries

Is a small amount of adaptation in comparison to large climate change problems a worthwhile investment in
poor and extremely poor developing countries?  What adaptation and funding priorities should be established
in your opinion?  Download and read the materials for this week here.

 

Tuesday, April 5th and Thursday, April 7th:  American and International Energy Plans

Energy problems, including excessive reliance on fossil fuels, inefficient subsidies supporting GHG-polluting
energy sources, and the lack of adequate financial and political support for renewable clean energy sources,
are among the leading causes of the continuing growth of GHG discharges and climate change risks.  Read
the materials for this week, which address both U.S. and International energy practices, problems, and future
predictions.
 

Tuesday, April 12th: CCS--Carbon Capture and Storage (or Sequestration)

After reading the overview of different energy technologies and their capacities in Metz at pp. 105-136, read Metz from pp. 136(B)-142, download three informative articles, and then read Hansen pp. 172-74, 204(M)-205 for a more negative reaction to CCS.


Thursday, April 14th:  Various Forms of Biofuels and Associated Problems

There are many forms of potential biofuels--any natural biological substance that can burn could in theory produce some amount of energy.  Unfortunately, most if not all of the potential biofuels entail serious environmental, economic, and implementation problems.  Download the materials for this class and read about some but by no means all of these difficulties.

 

Tuesday, April 19th and Thursday, April 21st:  Potential Mitigation "Solutions"

During our last class week, we will discuss the potential mitigation approaches described in Chapter Five of the latest draft of my book,
including my argument that no single mechanism can be effective.  We will also compare my recommendations against the fee-and-
dividends program advocated by Dr. Hansen, pp. 209(T)-222.  And we may also discuss whether my proposals are more promising
than the cap-and-trade schemes espoused by many economists.

 

Please remember to fill out the student evaluations forms on the Blackboard web site.  I won't be able to see them until after the course
grades have been submitted, and I am interested in looking at them because the content and materials for the course change every year
and semester.  I would also appreciate receiving student comments, either signed or anonymous, telling me what you think of the course
and specifically what were its strongest and weakest aspects in your opinion.